Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Ferreira vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-7-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
74"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Diego Ferreira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Diego FerreiraNow 1726
If they win+8→ 1734
If they lose-16→ 1710
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-8→ 1605

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1745 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.82
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
41%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
56%
Strike defense
59%
0.86
Takedown avg.
0.58
30%
Takedown accuracy
39%
58%
Takedown defense
81%
0.58
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Diego FerreiraMichael Johnson
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (26%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
7 (37%)
Submission
2 (8%)
7 (37%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Diego Ferreira66%
Michael Johnson 34%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Diego Ferreira a 66% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Diego Ferreira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1726 to 1613, a 113-point edge.

Diego Ferreira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Diego Ferreira finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.