Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Ferreira vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-7-0Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
74"Reach70,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamH2O MMA· 1644 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Diego Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Diego FerreiraNow 1737
If they win+14→ 1751
If they lose-10→ 1727
Olivier Aubin-MercierNow 1793
If they win+10→ 1803
If they lose-14→ 1779

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1655 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.70
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
40%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.97
56%
Strike defense
56%
0.82
Takedown avg.
2.36
3%
Takedown accuracy
34%
58%
Takedown defense
71%
0.55
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Diego FerreiraOlivier Aubin-Mercier
17001750180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (25%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
7 (35%)
Submission
8 (38%)
8 (40%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Olivier Aubin-Mercier72%
Diego Ferreira 28%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 72% favorite over Diego Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1793 to 1737, a 56-point edge.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Diego Ferreira finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.

Diego Ferreira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.