Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Ferreira vs Rustam Khabilov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-7-0Record24-4-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'8"
74"Reach40,5"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Rustam Khabilov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Diego Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Diego FerreiraNow 1737
If they win+14→ 1751
If they lose-10→ 1727
Rustam KhabilovNow 1788
If they win+10→ 1798
If they lose-14→ 1774

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1706 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.70
Sig. strikes / min
1.98
40%
Strike accuracy
34%
3.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.16
56%
Strike defense
66%
0.82
Takedown avg.
3.95
3%
Takedown accuracy
42%
58%
Takedown defense
61%
0.55
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Diego FerreiraRustam Khabilov
175018002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (25%)
KO/TKO
4 (17%)
7 (35%)
Submission
5 (21%)
8 (40%)
Decision
15 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Rustam Khabilov61%
Diego Ferreira 39%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Rustam Khabilov a 61% favorite over Diego Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Rustam Khabilov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1737, a 51-point edge.

Diego Ferreira finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rustam Khabilov 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.