Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Morillo vs Justin Buchholz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Diego Morillo
ec

Diego Morillo

“Corazon de Leon”

8-5-0LightweightInka MMA

1533Average

Tale of the tape

8-5-0Record16-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Funky MastersTeamIndependent

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Diego MorilloNow 1533
If they win+16→ 1549
If they lose-16→ 1517
Justin BuchholzNow 1531
If they win+12→ 1543
If they lose-12→ 1519

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1501 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.35
TBD
Strike accuracy
27%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.14
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
33%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Diego MorilloJustin Buchholz
1500155020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
8 (53%)
1 (13%)
Submission
6 (40%)
3 (38%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Diego Morillo73%
Justin Buchholz 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Diego Morillo a 73% favorite over Justin Buchholz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1533 vs 1531), separated by just 2 points.

Diego Morillo finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Justin Buchholz 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.