Diego Morillo vs Nick Ertl
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-5-0Record8-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1549
If they lose-16→ 1517
If they win+16→ 1553
If they lose-16→ 1521
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1501 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diego MorilloNick Ertl
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diego Morillo79%
Nick Ertl 21%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Diego Morillo a 79% favorite over Nick Ertl in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nick Ertl's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1533 vs 1537), separated by just 4 points.
Nick Ertl enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Diego Morillo finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Nick Ertl 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.