Diego Sanchez vs Trey Waters
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-14-0Record9-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'5"
TBDReach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamLudus MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1693
If they lose-12→ 1669
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diego SanchezTrey Waters
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Trey Waters72%
Diego Sanchez 28%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Trey Waters a 72% favorite over Diego Sanchez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Diego Sanchez's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1681 vs 1679), separated by just 2 points.
Diego Sanchez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Diego Sanchez finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Trey Waters 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.