Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Santos vs Justin Robbins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-4-0Record14-19-1
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'5"
-ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team 360mmaTeamFinney's HIT Squad

What's at stake

Diego Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Justin Robbins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Diego SantosNow 1449
If they win+14→ 1463
If they lose-18→ 1431
Justin RobbinsNow 1402
If they win+14→ 1416
If they lose-10→ 1392

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1493 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.67
TBD
Strike accuracy
37%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.20
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Diego SantosJustin Robbins
1400145015002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (21%)
2 (33%)
Submission
4 (29%)
1 (17%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Diego Santos73%
Justin Robbins 27%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Diego Santos a 73% favorite over Justin Robbins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Diego Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1449 to 1402, a 47-point edge.

Justin Robbins enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Diego Santos finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Justin Robbins 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.