Diego Santos vs Kenji Arai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record15-15-5
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight144 lbs
Team 360mmaTeamPANCRASEism
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1466
If they lose-15→ 1434
If they win+12→ 1474
If they lose-12→ 1450
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1491 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diego SantosKenji Arai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diego Santos70%
Kenji Arai 30%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Diego Santos a 70% favorite over Kenji Arai in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kenji Arai's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1449 vs 1462), separated by just 13 points.
Kenji Arai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Diego Santos finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Kenji Arai 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.