Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Santos vs Kyohei Hagiwara

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-4-0Record9-12-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
-Reach71.1"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team 360mmaTeamTeam Smoker

What's at stake

Kyohei Hagiwara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Diego Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Diego SantosNow 1449
If they win+17→ 1466
If they lose-15→ 1434
Kyohei HagiwaraNow 1479
If they win+15→ 1494
If they lose-17→ 1462

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Diego SantosKyohei Hagiwara
14501500202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
2 (33%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (17%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Diego Santos51%
Kyohei Hagiwara 49%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Diego Santos a 51% favorite over Kyohei Hagiwara in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kyohei Hagiwara's way (46%).

Kyohei Hagiwara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1479 to 1449, a 30-point edge.

Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Diego Santos finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.