Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Saraiva vs Jeremy Stephens

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-20-1Record29-23-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team OctopusTeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Diego SaraivaNow 1552
If they win+12→ 1564
If they lose-12→ 1540
Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+12→ 1563
If they lose-12→ 1539

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.64
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
33%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.58
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.14
62%
Strike defense
59%
1.33
Takedown avg.
1.11
40%
Takedown accuracy
38%
0%
Takedown defense
62%
0.67
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Diego SaraivaJeremy Stephens
15501600201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (18%)
KO/TKO
19 (66%)
14 (64%)
Submission
2 (7%)
4 (18%)
Decision
8 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Jeremy Stephens60%
Diego Saraiva 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 60% favorite over Diego Saraiva in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Diego Saraiva's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1552 vs 1551), separated by just 1 points.

Diego Saraiva enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Diego Saraiva finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.