Din Thomas vs Matt Serra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-9-0Record11-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'6"
TBDReach68"
143 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Matt Serra is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Din Thomas carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1588
If they lose-11→ 1564
If they win+15→ 1620
If they lose-17→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1575 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Din ThomasMatt Serra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Serra56%
Din Thomas 44%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Serra a 56% favorite over Din Thomas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Matt Serra holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1605 to 1575, a 30-point edge.
Din Thomas finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Matt Serra 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.