Diyar Nurgozhay vs Ricardo Arona
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record14-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height5'11"
74"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight200 lbs
Tobet Top TeamTeamBrazilian Top Team· 1657 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
If they win+16→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1655 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diyar NurgozhayRicardo Arona
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diyar Nurgozhay70%
Ricardo Arona 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Diyar Nurgozhay a 70% favorite over Ricardo Arona in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1697), separated by just 2 points.
Diyar Nurgozhay enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Diyar Nurgozhay finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Arona 36%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.