Combat Edge Intelligence

Dokonjonosuke Mishima vs Joe Stevenson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-7-2Record33-16-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'7"
TBDReachTBD
154 lbsWeight155 lbs
Cobra Kai MMA DojoTeamJoe Stevenson's Cobra Kai

What's at stake

Dokonjonosuke Mishima is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Joe Stevenson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dokonjonosuke MishimaNow 1649
If they win+11→ 1660
If they lose-13→ 1636
Joe StevensonNow 1615
If they win+13→ 1628
If they lose-11→ 1604

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1590 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.44
Sig. strikes / min
2.05
17%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
53%
Strike defense
61%
1.87
Takedown avg.
2.75
18%
Takedown accuracy
45%
25%
Takedown defense
40%
1.87
Submission avg.
2.20

Trajectory

Dokonjonosuke MishimaJoe Stevenson
1600165020092010201120122013201420152016

Win method breakdown

3 (15%)
KO/TKO
9 (27%)
7 (35%)
Submission
13 (39%)
10 (50%)
Decision
11 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Dokonjonosuke Mishima53%
Joe Stevenson 47%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Dokonjonosuke Mishima a 53% favorite over Joe Stevenson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Dokonjonosuke Mishima holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1615, a 34-point edge.

Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Dokonjonosuke Mishima finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Joe Stevenson 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.