Combat Edge Intelligence

Dominic Brown vs Matthew O'Rourke

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-23-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height-
TBDReach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Ju-Jitsu AcademyTeamTeam Ryano Waterford

What's at stake

Matthew O'Rourke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Dominic Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dominic BrownNow 1421
If they win+14→ 1435
If they lose-10→ 1411
Matthew O'RourkeNow 1471
If they win+21→ 1492
If they lose-27→ 1444

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Dominic BrownMatthew O'Rourke
1400145020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
7 (44%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (6%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Matthew O'Rourke70%
Dominic Brown 30%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 70% favorite over Dominic Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Matthew O'Rourke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1421, a 50-point edge.

Dominic Brown finishes 94% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.