Dominick Cruz vs Mario Bautista
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-4-0Record18-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'9"
68"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Alliance MMATeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1800
If they lose-12→ 1776
If they win+16→ 1806
If they lose-16→ 1774
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dominick CruzMario Bautista
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mario Bautista86%
Dominick Cruz 14%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 86% favorite over Dominick Cruz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1788 vs 1790), separated by just 2 points.
Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Dominick Cruz finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Mario Bautista 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.