Dominick Cruz vs TJ Dillashaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-4-0Record17-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'6"
68"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Alliance MMATeamThe Treigning Lab
What's at stake
Dominick Cruz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — TJ Dillashaw carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1799
If they lose-13→ 1775
If they win+17→ 1780
If they lose-15→ 1748
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1755 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dominick CruzTJ Dillashaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dominick Cruz53%
TJ Dillashaw 47%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Dominick Cruz a 53% favorite over TJ Dillashaw in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Dominick Cruz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1763, a 25-point edge.
Dominick Cruz finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, TJ Dillashaw 65%.
Dominick Cruz and TJ Dillashaw share 2 common opponents: Henry Cejudo and Cody Garbrandt.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.