Dominick Reyes vs Jan Błachowicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record29-12-2
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
77"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Teixeira MMA & Fitness· 1650 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamWCA Fight Team· 1601 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Dominick Reyes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jan Błachowicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1763
If they lose-17→ 1731
If they win+13→ 1746
If they lose-11→ 1722
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1761 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dominick ReyesJan Błachowicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dominick Reyes52%
Jan Błachowicz 48%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Dominick Reyes a 52% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Dominick Reyes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1733, a 15-point edge.
Dominick Reyes finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jan Błachowicz 62%.
Dominick Reyes and Jan Błachowicz share 1 common opponent: Carlos Ulberg.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.