Dominick Reyes vs Paulo Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record16-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'0"
77"Reach72"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Teixeira MMA & FitnessTeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1765
If they lose-16→ 1733
If they win+16→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1738
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dominick ReyesPaulo Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa59%
Dominick Reyes 41%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 59% favorite over Dominick Reyes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1749 vs 1754), separated by just 5 points.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Dominick Reyes finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Dominick Reyes carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.