Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record24-11-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'5"
77"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Teixeira MMA & FitnessTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Dominick Reyes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ryan Spann carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1763
If they lose-18→ 1731
If they win+13→ 1723
If they lose-11→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dominick ReyesRyan Spann
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dominick Reyes56%
Ryan Spann 44%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Dominick Reyes a 56% favorite over Ryan Spann in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Dominick Reyes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1710, a 39-point edge.
Ryan Spann enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Dominick Reyes finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Spann 88%.
Dominick Reyes and Ryan Spann share 2 common opponents: Nikita Krylov and Anthony Smith.
Ryan Spann carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.