Combat Edge Intelligence

Dominique Steele vs Matthew Semelsberger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-12-0Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
74,0"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team VisionTeamClinch Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dominique SteeleNow 1609
If they win+12→ 1621
If they lose-12→ 1597
Matthew SemelsbergerNow 1609
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.32
Sig. strikes / min
3.77
49%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.24
50%
Strike defense
54%
2.95
Takedown avg.
1.01
42%
Takedown accuracy
57%
76%
Takedown defense
46%
0
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Dominique SteeleMatthew Semelsberger
16001650170020232024

Win method breakdown

7 (35%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
2 (10%)
Submission
1 (9%)
11 (55%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Dominique Steele and Matthew Semelsberger within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1609), separated by just 0 points.

Dominique Steele enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Dominique Steele finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.