Combat Edge Intelligence

Don'Tale Mayes vs Rodrigo Nascimento

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-9-0Record11-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height6'4"
81"Reach80"
264 lbsWeight265 lbs
Bronx Hill MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Rodrigo Nascimento is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Don'Tale Mayes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Don'Tale MayesNow 1580
If they win+20→ 1600
If they lose-12→ 1568
Rodrigo NascimentoNow 1666
If they win+12→ 1678
If they lose-20→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.49
Sig. strikes / min
3.71
44%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.34
47%
Strike defense
45%
0.64
Takedown avg.
1.02
39%
Takedown accuracy
38%
58%
Takedown defense
61%
0
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Don'Tale MayesRodrigo Nascimento
160016501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
1 (9%)
Submission
6 (55%)
4 (36%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Rodrigo Nascimento71%
Don'Tale Mayes 29%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Rodrigo Nascimento a 71% favorite over Don'Tale Mayes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Rodrigo Nascimento holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1580, a 86-point edge.

Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Don'Tale Mayes finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Nascimento 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.