Don'Tale Mayes vs Thomas Petersen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-9-0Record11-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height6'1"
81"Reach74"
264 lbsWeight257 lbs
What's at stake
Thomas Petersen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Don'Tale Mayes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1598
If they lose-14→ 1566
If they win+14→ 1639
If they lose-18→ 1607
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Don'Tale MayesThomas Petersen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thomas Petersen77%
Don'Tale Mayes 23%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 77% favorite over Don'Tale Mayes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Thomas Petersen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1625 to 1580, a 45-point edge.
Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Don'Tale Mayes finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.
Don'Tale Mayes and Thomas Petersen share 2 common opponents: Valter Walker and Shamil Gaziev.
Don'Tale Mayes carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.