Don Frye vs Justin Tafa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-9-1Record7-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
73"Reach74"
210 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team FryeTeamNTG Fight & Fitness
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1621
If they lose-12→ 1597
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Don FryeJustin Tafa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Tafa60%
Don Frye 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Tafa a 60% favorite over Don Frye in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Don Frye's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1608), separated by just 1 points.
Don Frye enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Don Frye finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Justin Tafa 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.