Don Frye vs Lucas Armand
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-9-1Record6-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
73"Reach78"
210 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team FryeTeamMurcielago MMA· 1670 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1621
If they lose-12→ 1597
If they win+24→ 1634
If they lose-24→ 1586
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Don FryeLucas Armand
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Armand71%
Don Frye 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Armand a 71% favorite over Don Frye in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1610), separated by just 1 points.
Don Frye enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Don Frye finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Armand 83%.
Lucas Armand carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.