Don Frye vs Mark Coleman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-9-1Record16-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
73"Reach75"
210 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team FryeTeamHammer House
What's at stake
Mark Coleman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Don Frye carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1624
If they lose-9→ 1600
If they win+9→ 1702
If they lose-15→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Don FryeMark Coleman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mark Coleman75%
Don Frye 25%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Mark Coleman a 75% favorite over Don Frye in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Mark Coleman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1609, a 84-point edge.
Don Frye enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Don Frye finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Mark Coleman 75%.
Mark Coleman carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.