Combat Edge Intelligence

Don Madge vs Joe Giannetti

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Don Madge
za

Don Madge

“Magic Man”

11-5-1WelterweightPFL

1618Solid

Tale of the tape

11-5-1Record16-5-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
72,5"Reach42,0"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
FightFit MilitiaTeamSouth Shore Sportfighting

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Don MadgeNow 1618
If they win+16→ 1634
If they lose-16→ 1602
Joe GiannettiNow 1619
If they win+16→ 1635
If they lose-16→ 1603

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1541 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.08
Sig. strikes / min
1.93
53%
Strike accuracy
39%
0.74
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
67%
Strike defense
41%
2.22
Takedown avg.
1
25%
Takedown accuracy
17%
80%
Takedown defense
0%
0.74
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Don MadgeJoe Giannetti
160016502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
6 (38%)
5 (45%)
Submission
8 (50%)
1 (9%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Joe Giannetti62%
Don Madge 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Joe Giannetti a 62% favorite over Don Madge in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1618 vs 1619), separated by just 1 points.

Don Madge finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Joe Giannetti 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.