Don Shainis vs Lucas Alexander
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record8-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'11"
67"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight148 lbs
Citadel Martial Arts & FitnessTeamFusion X-Cel Performance· 1620 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1594
If they lose-16→ 1562
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Don ShainisLucas Alexander
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Alexander56%
Don Shainis 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Alexander a 56% favorite over Don Shainis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Don Shainis's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1578 vs 1576), separated by just 2 points.
Lucas Alexander enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Don Shainis finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Alexander 38%.
Lucas Alexander carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.