Donald Cerrone vs Edson Barboza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record24-15-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight145 lbs
BMF RanchTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1721
If they lose-13→ 1697
If they win+13→ 1682
If they lose-11→ 1658
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneEdson Barboza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Edson Barboza78%
Donald Cerrone 22%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 78% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Donald Cerrone's way (44%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1669, a 41-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Edson Barboza 63%.
Edson Barboza carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.