Donald Cerrone vs Gunnar Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record19-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1722
If they lose-12→ 1698
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-16→ 1694
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneGunnar Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gunnar Nelson67%
Donald Cerrone 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 67% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Donald Cerrone's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1710 vs 1710), separated by just 0 points.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Gunnar Nelson 89%.
Donald Cerrone and Gunnar Nelson share 1 common opponent: Leon Edwards.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.