Donald Cerrone vs Jeremy Stephens
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record29-23-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
73"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
BMF RanchTeamAlliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1716
If they lose-17→ 1692
If they win+17→ 1570
If they lose-7→ 1546
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneJeremy Stephens
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Donald Cerrone66%
Jeremy Stephens 34%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Donald Cerrone a 66% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1553, a 156-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.
Donald Cerrone carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.