Donald Cerrone vs Jorge Masvidal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record35-17-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
BMF RanchTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Jorge Masvidal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Donald Cerrone carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1723
If they lose-11→ 1699
If they win+11→ 1751
If they lose-13→ 1727
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1781 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneJorge Masvidal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jorge Masvidal67%
Donald Cerrone 33%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Jorge Masvidal a 67% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Jorge Masvidal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1710, a 30-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Masvidal 51%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.