Donald Cerrone vs Kevin Lee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record20-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
73"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
BMF RanchTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1722
If they lose-12→ 1698
If they win+12→ 1723
If they lose-12→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneKevin Lee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Lee72%
Donald Cerrone 28%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Lee a 72% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1710 vs 1711), separated by just 1 points.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Lee 60%.
Donald Cerrone and Kevin Lee share 1 common opponent: Al Iaquinta.
Kevin Lee carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.