Donald Cerrone vs Melvin Guillard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record32-22-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
73"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Melvin Guillard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1715
If they lose-18→ 1691
If they win+18→ 1527
If they lose-6→ 1503
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneMelvin Guillard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Donald Cerrone84%
Melvin Guillard 16%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Donald Cerrone a 84% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1509, a 200-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.