Donald Cerrone vs Paul Kelly
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record15-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
73"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
BMF RanchTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Paul Kelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1716
If they lose-18→ 1692
If they win+23→ 1557
If they lose-9→ 1525
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerronePaul Kelly
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Donald Cerrone76%
Paul Kelly 24%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Donald Cerrone a 76% favorite over Paul Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1534, a 176-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Paul Kelly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Paul Kelly 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.