Donald Cerrone vs Rick Story
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record21-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
73"Reach40,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
BMF RanchTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Rick Story is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Donald Cerrone carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1723
If they lose-11→ 1699
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneRick Story
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rick Story75%
Donald Cerrone 25%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Rick Story a 75% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Rick Story holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1710, a 34-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Rick Story 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.