Combat Edge Intelligence

Donald Cerrone vs Robbie Lawler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

36-17-0Record30-16-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
BMF RanchTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Donald Cerrone carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Donald CerroneNow 1710
If they win+15→ 1725
If they lose-9→ 1701
Robbie LawlerNow 1788
If they win+9→ 1797
If they lose-15→ 1773

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.41
Sig. strikes / min
3.85
47%
Strike accuracy
47%
4.48
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.67
53%
Strike defense
59%
1.16
Takedown avg.
0.65
33%
Takedown accuracy
64%
74%
Takedown defense
65%
1.16
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Donald CerroneRobbie Lawler
1700175018002020202120222023

Win method breakdown

10 (28%)
KO/TKO
22 (73%)
17 (47%)
Submission
1 (3%)
9 (25%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Robbie Lawler74%
Donald Cerrone 26%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 74% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1710, a 78-point edge.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.