Donald Cerrone vs Vagner Rocha
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record14-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
BMF RanchTeamTeam VRMA
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Vagner Rocha carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1721
If they lose-13→ 1697
If they win+17→ 1701
If they lose-15→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneVagner Rocha
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vagner Rocha52%
Donald Cerrone 48%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Vagner Rocha a 52% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Donald Cerrone's way (46%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1684, a 26-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Vagner Rocha enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Vagner Rocha 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.