Donald Cerrone vs Yancy Medeiros
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record16-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
73"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight165 lbs
BMF RanchTeamTeam Hakuilua
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Yancy Medeiros carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1719
If they lose-15→ 1695
If they win+20→ 1630
If they lose-12→ 1598
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneYancy Medeiros
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Donald Cerrone61%
Yancy Medeiros 39%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Donald Cerrone a 61% favorite over Yancy Medeiros in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1610, a 100-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Yancy Medeiros 75%.
Yancy Medeiros carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.