Combat Edge Intelligence

Dong Hyun Ma vs Paulo Thiago

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-11-3Record19-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
70.50ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Busan Team MADTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

Dong Hyun Ma is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Paulo Thiago carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dong Hyun MaNow 1615
If they win+11→ 1626
If they lose-13→ 1602
Paulo ThiagoNow 1595
If they win+13→ 1608
If they lose-11→ 1584

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1645 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.12
Sig. strikes / min
1.71
49%
Strike accuracy
39%
1.89
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.99
59%
Strike defense
64%
2.93
Takedown avg.
1.42
44%
Takedown accuracy
32%
72%
Takedown defense
64%
0.60
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Dong Hyun MaPaulo Thiago
16001650201720182019

Win method breakdown

6 (38%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
6 (38%)
Submission
10 (53%)
4 (25%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Dong Hyun Ma60%
Paulo Thiago 40%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Dong Hyun Ma a 60% favorite over Paulo Thiago in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Dong Hyun Ma holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1595, a 20-point edge.

Dong Hyun Ma enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Dong Hyun Ma finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Thiago 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.