Combat Edge Intelligence

Donte Johnson vs Lyoto Machida

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-0-0Record26-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height6'1"
74"Reach74"
209 lbsWeight185 lbs
Titletown MMATeamAPAM

What's at stake

Donte Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Donte JohnsonNow 1707
If they win+22→ 1729
If they lose-26→ 1681
Lyoto MachidaNow 1685
If they win+13→ 1698
If they lose-11→ 1674

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1531 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.11
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
48%
Strike accuracy
53%
2
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.57
62%
Strike defense
62%
2
Takedown avg.
1.21
100%
Takedown accuracy
65%
75%
Takedown defense
76%
0.67
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Donte JohnsonLyoto Machida
15501600165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (78%)
KO/TKO
11 (42%)
1 (11%)
Submission
2 (8%)
1 (11%)
Decision
13 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Donte Johnson88%
Lyoto Machida 12%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Donte Johnson a 88% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Donte Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1685, a 22-point edge.

Donte Johnson enters on a 9-fight win streak.

Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Donte Johnson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Lyoto Machida 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.