Combat Edge Intelligence

Doug Marshall vs Mantas Kondratavičius

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record9-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'2"
TBDReach75"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Elite TeamTeamFighter House

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Doug MarshallNow 1657
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645
Mantas KondratavičiusNow 1662
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1602 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.97
Sig. strikes / min
4.55
51%
Strike accuracy
33%
6.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.64
62%
Strike defense
60%
0
Takedown avg.
13.64
TBD
Takedown accuracy
100%
0%
Takedown defense
0%
6.29
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Doug MarshallMantas Kondratavičius
16001650170020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (72%)
KO/TKO
6 (67%)
3 (17%)
Submission
2 (22%)
2 (11%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Mantas Kondratavičius72%
Doug Marshall 28%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Mantas Kondratavičius a 72% favorite over Doug Marshall in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1662), separated by just 5 points.

Doug Marshall enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mantas Kondratavičius enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Doug Marshall finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Mantas Kondratavičius 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.