Drew Dimanlig vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-4-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
174 lbsWeight185 lbs
Nor Cal Fight FactoryTeamAstra Fight Team
What's at stake
Marcio Alexandre Junior is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Drew Dimanlig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1471
If they lose-22→ 1423
If they win+22→ 1489
If they lose-26→ 1441
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1503 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Drew DimanligMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Drew Dimanlig52%
Marcio Alexandre Junior 48%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Drew Dimanlig a 52% favorite over Marcio Alexandre Junior in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcio Alexandre Junior's way (47%).
Marcio Alexandre Junior holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1467 to 1445, a 22-point edge.
Drew Dimanlig enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Drew Dimanlig finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.