Drew Dimanlig vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-4-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
174 lbsWeight185 lbs
Nor Cal Fight FactoryTeamAstra Fight Team· 1573 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1468
If they lose-25→ 1420
If they win+25→ 1461
If they lose-23→ 1413
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1503 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Drew DimanligMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Alexandre Junior55%
Drew Dimanlig 45%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 55% favorite over Drew Dimanlig in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Drew Dimanlig's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1445 vs 1436), separated by just 9 points.
Drew Dimanlig enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Drew Dimanlig finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.