Drew Dober vs Jamie Varner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-15-0Record21-11-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70″ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamArizona Combat Sports
What's at stake
Drew Dober is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jamie Varner carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1710
If they lose-15→ 1686
If they win+15→ 1618
If they lose-9→ 1594
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Drew DoberJamie Varner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Drew Dober81%
Jamie Varner 19%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Drew Dober a 81% favorite over Jamie Varner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Drew Dober holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1603, a 98-point edge.
Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Jamie Varner 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.