Drew Dober vs Jason Gonzalez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-15-0Record11-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'2"
70″Reach74,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamMillennia MMA
What's at stake
Drew Dober is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jason Gonzalez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1711
If they lose-14→ 1687
If they win+19→ 1658
If they lose-13→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Drew DoberJason Gonzalez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Drew Dober70%
Jason Gonzalez 30%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Drew Dober a 70% favorite over Jason Gonzalez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Drew Dober holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1639, a 62-point edge.
Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jason Gonzalez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Jason Gonzalez 100%.
Jason Gonzalez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.