Drew Dober vs Matt Frevola
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-15-0Record11-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70″Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamGracie Tampa South
What's at stake
Drew Dober is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Matt Frevola carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1711
If they lose-14→ 1687
If they win+19→ 1656
If they lose-13→ 1624
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Drew DoberMatt Frevola
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Drew Dober70%
Matt Frevola 30%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Drew Dober a 70% favorite over Matt Frevola in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Drew Dober holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1637, a 64-point edge.
Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Matt Frevola 64%.
Drew Dober and Matt Frevola share 1 common opponent: Terrance McKinney.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.