Drew Dober vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-15-0Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70″Reach70,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamH2O MMA
What's at stake
Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Drew Dober carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1716
If they lose-9→ 1692
If they win+9→ 1803
If they lose-15→ 1779
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Drew DoberOlivier Aubin-Mercier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Olivier Aubin-Mercier72%
Drew Dober 28%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 72% favorite over Drew Dober in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1794 to 1701, a 93-point edge.
Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.