Drew Dober vs Rafael Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-15-0Record21-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'7"
70″Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Drew Dober is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Rafael Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1710
If they lose-15→ 1686
If they win+20→ 1633
If they lose-12→ 1601
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Drew DoberRafael Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Drew Dober72%
Rafael Alves 28%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Drew Dober a 72% favorite over Rafael Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Drew Dober holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1613, a 88-point edge.
Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Rafael Alves enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Alves 76%.
Drew Dober carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.