Combat Edge Intelligence

Drew Dober vs Scott Holtzman

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-15-0Record14-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70″Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamShield Systems

What's at stake

Drew Dober is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Scott Holtzman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Drew DoberNow 1701
If they win+11→ 1712
If they lose-13→ 1688
Scott HoltzmanNow 1664
If they win+18→ 1682
If they lose-14→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
4.32
41%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.66
53%
Strike defense
55%
0.63
Takedown avg.
1.88
17%
Takedown accuracy
57%
58%
Takedown defense
67%
0.07
Submission avg.
0.18

Trajectory

Drew DoberScott Holtzman
16501700202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (59%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
5 (17%)
Submission
2 (14%)
7 (24%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Drew Dober72%
Scott Holtzman 28%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Drew Dober a 72% favorite over Scott Holtzman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Drew Dober holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1664, a 37-point edge.

Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Drew Dober finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Scott Holtzman 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.