Combat Edge Intelligence

Drew Fickett vs Keita Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Drew Fickett
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Drew Fickett

“Night Rider”

43-22-0LightweightSFP

1569Solid

Tale of the tape

43-22-0Record36-12-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
TBDReach73,0"
151 lbsWeight156 lbs
Team ScrubTeamUnited Gym Tokyo

What's at stake

Keita Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Drew Fickett carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Drew FickettNow 1569
If they win+16→ 1585
If they lose-8→ 1561
Keita NakamuraNow 1693
If they win+8→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1677

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.45
Sig. strikes / min
2.23
42%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.20
57%
Strike defense
59%
1.42
Takedown avg.
1.65
38%
Takedown accuracy
49%
31%
Takedown defense
64%
1.90
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Drew FickettKeita Nakamura
15501600165017002024

Win method breakdown

4 (9%)
KO/TKO
9 (25%)
31 (72%)
Submission
16 (44%)
8 (19%)
Decision
11 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Keita Nakamura81%
Drew Fickett 19%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Keita Nakamura a 81% favorite over Drew Fickett in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Keita Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1569, a 124-point edge.

Drew Fickett finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Keita Nakamura 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.