Combat Edge Intelligence

Drew McFedries vs Thales Leites

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record28-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReach78,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Champions GymTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Thales Leites is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Drew McFedries carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Drew McFedriesNow 1586
If they win+23→ 1609
If they lose-9→ 1577
Thales LeitesNow 1744
If they win+7→ 1751
If they lose-17→ 1727

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1578 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.13
Sig. strikes / min
2.13
51%
Strike accuracy
41%
4.56
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
52%
Strike defense
53%
1.42
Takedown avg.
2.10
100%
Takedown accuracy
27%
56%
Takedown defense
31%
0.71
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Drew McFedriesThales Leites
1550160016501700175020142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

11 (92%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
0 (0%)
Submission
15 (54%)
1 (8%)
Decision
9 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Thales Leites78%
Drew McFedries 22%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Thales Leites a 78% favorite over Drew McFedries in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Thales Leites holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1586, a 158-point edge.

Drew McFedries enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Drew McFedries finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.